The second day was a lot of running around. As I was not looking for something specific nor shopping for new technology I was looking at everything available. If normally I would say that window shopping is not hard, well this time I was really mistaken. 27 halls full of technology makes a techhy feel like a kid in a candy shop :)
Ok, the short version of the long story is - there were no big surprises in new technology. Don't get me wrong, its one thing to know the background info and pictures from the Internet and another thing is to see and touch a physical object.
The first thing that comes to my mind is 3D TV. Well it really isn't 3D as you really cant see it from all around the TV. Its a normal LCD TV with a extra layer of film that generates 3D like picture when looked at a correct angle. All the TV's and monitors I saw were quite crude, but promising. I'm guessing that the viewing angle is around 10+/-5 degrees vertical and horizontal, so it has a long way to go. Most of the sets were around 40'', so when the object moved from one end of the screen to the other the picture went foggy and you would have to look for a new spot where the picture became 3D. I would say that this technology has potential, but it could take up to 5 years until its production ready - I for one could not imagine watching a 3D movie while running around the room like crazy. So until the viewing angle is at least 90 degrees or more its not worth for a release. In one box I found a "medical" monitor that was around 15..17''. This could be usable much sooner as the display area is smaller and finding the focal point more easy as the user would be sitting in more or less constant position. Tho the chair would have to be really comfortable as sitting in a constant position gets really hard - maybe a new design would be needed to accommodate it.
Second big thing were flash HDD's. I know its not a big thing for most ppl, but for me it is. I have 7 comps running several apps for me and 4 of them run 24/7 so the HDD noise get irritating some times. Flash based drives have one more advantage compared to the normal drives - they consume around 75% less energy and therefore generate less heat witch also means lower rpm fans or maybe even peso/pelter based cooling for the whole case. This is if the CPU makers lower this TDP to around 30W (the current mobile/laptop CPU's fall to this range). One more good thing is maximum sustained transfer rate of around 30MB/s read/write and seek time of 2ms, so they are fast compared to the current best HDD's 5.4ms seek. And now for the bad things - the firs generation will use normal NAND flash cells, so the write cycle count is limited to 10..20k guaranteed write cycles per memory slot. This is extremely low compared to the standard DIE HDD's 100...300M write cycles, so the first users will probably be big enterprises that use LARGE databases for read only access. The first generation has been around for a year now with sizes of up to 32GB and I know that at least 1 company is using it for that purpose - NY Stock Exchange. I talked with 3 manufacturers who promised 128GB 1. generation flash drives by the end of the year with a price tag estimate of 1k USD/peace. Tho the price seems kinda high I suspect that this is just a manufacturing price not retail price. The bright side is that 2 of the sale persons revealed that their developers are working on a new technology to make the write count grow to the level of normal HDD's (100M write cycles). Hers a link to all the new flash memory technologies for extended reading.
Third big thing for me was WiMAX. The dreaded IEEE 802.16 has so much potential, but is dieing so fast as the final draft is still not ready after 5 years of research and standardization. As far the manufacturers we ready to comment was that the beta generation is working and running pretty well. So far the manufacturers are shipping out only as much hardware as is are telecoms ready to experiment. Since the v2.0 daft was sent to the IEEE council for reading the first generation wont be 100% compatible with the v2 draft as the transceivers are not capable to use all the frequency ranges that are allowed to use in v2. This is not all bad, as if the draft gets standardized, some have built their chips on a wide band transceivers so they can make small changes with only firmware upgrades, but the old generation is hardware based and therefore not compatible. The suspected v3 draft of the protocol should be ready at the end of next year, and that should be the final version. The changes planned on v3 are minimal protocol optimizations, so they should not pose any incompatibility problems. So at the end of the year there should be publicly available both AP's and cards that support the normal wifi and also wimax - next summer I can sit at my yard and watch HD videos without any problems, from my laptop while sitting outside next to a pool :D
Hmm - this reminds me that I did not see any BluRay not HDDVD products at CeBIT. I guess I missed them by accident, but still...
technorati tags:CeBIT, Impressions, of, 3D, TV, flash, HDD, WiMAX
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